Xeneta: US container freight rates reach post-Hormuz peak

October 5 ------ Spot container freight rates from the Far East to the US have reached their post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026, although rates are expected to remain elevated through the rest of the year, according to Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand.

According to Sand, spot rates from Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026. He attributed the recent shift partly to easing port congestion in Asia as typhoon season winds down, while Golden Week and national holidays in China are reducing exports during the first week of October.

Spot rates increased 1.4% on the Far East-US West Coast trade and 0.7% to the US East Coast. However, they remain 344% and 335% higher, respectively, than the pre-Hormuz crisis levels recorded on 28 February.

Meanwhile, rates from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean peaked earlier and have been falling since the beginning of July, with further declines recorded into October.

Rates expected to remain elevated

"Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year," Sand said. He noted that the decline could differ between the two major US trades, with rates to the US East Coast potentially falling more sharply than those to the West Coast.

The spread between the US East and West Coast trades has widened to USD 3,177 per FEU, compared with around USD 772 before the Hormuz crisis. The US East Coast is currently the more expensive trade. “The spread will narrow as the broader decline takes hold in the remainder of the year, driven mainly by a harder fall into the US East Coast due to its more elevated starting point,” Sand said.

Looking three months ahead, Xeneta expects spot rates to the US East Coast could reach USD 6,000-7,000 per FEU, while rates to the West Coast could fall to around USD 4,500-5,500. “That would be a sizeable correction, but not a collapse,” Sand said, while noting that further major disruptions or geopolitical conflict could “change the situation dramatically once again.”

Xeneta spot rate data

As of 1 October 2026, average spot rates stood at:

• Far East to US West Coast: USD 8,346 per FEU

• Far East to US East Coast: USD 11,523 per FEU

• Far East to North Europe: USD 3,726 per FEU

• Far East to Mediterranean: USD 4,105 per FEU

• North Europe to US East Coast: USD 2,893 per FEU

Compared with 24 September, rates changed by:

• Far East to US West Coast: +1.4% (USD +115 per FEU)

• Far East to US East Coast: +0.7% (USD +78 per FEU)

• Far East to North Europe: -2.1% (USD -79 per FEU)

• Far East to Mediterranean: -4.6% (USD -197 per FEU)

• North Europe to US East Coast: -2.2% (USD -64 per FEU)

Compared with the pre-Hormuz baseline of 28 February 2026:

• Far East to US West Coast: +344.2%

• Far East to US East Coast: +334.7%

• Far East to North Europe: +67.9%

• Far East to Mediterranean: +23.3%

• North Europe to US East Coast: +95.9%

The US East-West Coast spread increased from USD 772 per FEU on 28 February to USD 3,177 per FEU on 1 October

Source: safety4sea.com