Windward: 1,290 foreign-flagged cargo and tanker vessels inside the Gulf

March 24 ------ Strait of Hormuz transits have collapsed 94.2% since 28 February, falling from a pre-war average of 120 daily transits to just 6.9, with satellite imagery confirming an 84.4% reduction in large vessels physically present in the corridor, according to Windward.

The Arabian Gulf operational overview

As explained, the Arabian Gulf is still active, but it is no longer operating normally. As of March 19, Windward identified 1,290 foreign-flagged cargo and tanker vessels inside the Gulf. Activity is now heavily concentrated along the western coast, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia serving as the primary hubs, while operators pull away from the Iranian coastline and prioritize more secure GCC infrastructure.

The current fleet composition highlights which registries, operators, and vessel types continue to maintain a presence in the Gulf under these conditions.

Flag registries:

• Panama: 379 vessels.

• Marshall Islands: 259 vessels.

• Liberia: 251 vessels.

• Comoros: 217 vessels.

• Singapore: 96 vessels.

Ownership and management by country:

• China: 480 vessels.

• Singapore: 474 vessels.

• Greece: 431 vessels.

• Marshall Islands: 329 vessels.

• Japan: 323 vessels.

Vessel subclasses:

• Bulk carriers: 415 vessels.

• General cargo: 341 vessels.

• Crude oil tankers: 283 vessels.

• Oil products tankers: 226 vessels.

• Container vessels: 119 vessels.

• LNG tankers: 51 vessels.

International shipping remains active in the Gulf, but under reduced mobility, elevated risk, and increasing reliance on western Gulf corridors.

The Strait of Hormuz operational overview

The Strait of Hormuz is no longer functioning as either a fully open route or a formally closed one — it is operating as a selective system. The early phase of the war triggered a near-instantaneous paralysis of traffic through the world’s most sensitive maritime chokepoint. Traffic fell from a daily average of 120 transits in both directions prior to the conflict to a daily average of just 6.9 transits, representing a 94.2% collapse in active maritime traffic.

Remote Sensing Intelligence confirms that vessels are not merely going dark, but that the corridor has been physically vacated. The blockade has shifted from a total blockade to a permission-based system, where a specific subset of vessels has successfully navigated the strait by abandoning international shipping lanes in favor of Iranian territorial waters.

Windward has tracked at least five eastbound bulk carriers exiting the Gulf between March 15 and 16, hugging Iranian coastlines, rather than using the standard international navigation corridor. In nearly all of those cases, the vessels had previously called at Imam Khomeini Port. Two LPG carriers also successfully transited on March 13.

Container shipping faces severe disruption

Container shipping inside the Gulf is now operating as a holding pattern rather than a functioning network. As of March 18, Windward identified 119 container vessels actively transmitting inside the Arabian Gulf. That includes 17 ULCVs above 100,000 DWT and 17 feeder vessels below 10,000 DWT. Broader industry estimates place around 138 vessels sheltering in the Gulf by early March, with the delta explained by exits and non-transmitting vessels.

The operational impact is global. More than 270,000 TEU of cargo, valued at roughly $10 billion, is stranded or constrained. But the bigger issue is rotation. Vessels that cannot leave Hormuz cannot complete voyages, and Cape rerouting adds 10 to 15 days per round trip. That amplifies effective capacity withdrawal far beyond the raw stranded TEU number.

Rates are already moving. The Drewry World Container Index rose from $1,958 per FEU on February 26 to $2,123 by March 12. Shanghai to Jebel Ali climbed from around $1,800 to above $4,000 per FEU. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 19% to $2,443. Shanghai to Genoa rose 10% to $3,120. Air freight has also surged, with South Asia to North America up 58% and Europe to the Middle East up 55%.

Ras Laffan strike disrupts global LNG supply

Iran’s campaign against Qatari infrastructure began on March 1 with drone strikes against state facilities, including a QatarEnergy site at Ras Laffan and the Mesaieed power plant. Qatar intercepted additional waves on March 9 and March 15.

But on the evening of March 18, one Iranian missile broke through defenses and struck the Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest LNG export hub, after four others were intercepted. Fires broke out, and QatarEnergy described the damage as extensive. By March 19, authorities confirmed a full halt to gas production.

This has immediate and potentially long-lasting consequences. Ras Laffan is the center of Qatar’s LNG system, and recovery could take significant time if infrastructure damage proves deep. The impact also extends into fertilizers.

The Qatar Fertilizer Company operates the world’s largest single-site urea export facility in the same industrial complex. Qatar accounts for roughly 14% to 15% of global urea exports, and a sustained interruption now puts annual output of 5.6 million tons of urea and 3.8 million tons of ammonia at risk. The market has already reacted. Urea prices are up 34.96% in recent days and 59.79% year on year.

"The key insight now is that the Gulf is no longer operating under a single rule set. Movement is selective. Visibility is degraded. Infrastructure is targetable. And the consequences are no longer regional. They are global," Winward highlights.

Source: safety4sea.com