Little Change at Strait of Hormuz After Trump's 48-Hour Threat

March 24 ------ President Donald Trump has given the Iranian government until Monday evening to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which he has previously said that the U.S. does not need. If Iran does not reopen the strait, Trump said, the U.S. will "obliterate" Iran's electrical power plants.

For its part, Iran claims that the strait is already open - for the right ships. A trickle of tonnage is getting past, according to tracking services, most of it using an Iranian-controlled lane past Qeshm and Larak. Iranian state media claims that negotiations are under way with multiple nations on terms for safe passage, including India and China. Iran's own tankers continue to load at Kharg Island and transit the strait, enabled by the U.S. decision to allow free passage for Iranian vessels and (as of Friday) to lift sanctions on Iranian oil sales.

Iran has refused to comply with Trump's new 48-hour threat, and has promised to retaliate with strikes on neighboring states' critical infrastructure if its power grid is hit. Traffic at the strait remained light as of Sunday; the Combined Maritime Forces Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) counted one vessel transit on March 22, down from historical average of 138 per day. "If Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all infrastructure of energy, information technology, and desalination facilities belonging to the US and [Israeli] regime in the region will be targeted," an IRGC spokesperson warned.

In the past week, Iran has destroyed approximately six percent of global LNG liquefaction capacity, damaged oil infrastructure on the Saudi Red Sea coast, and attempted a strike on the U.S.-UK base at Diego Garcia - more than 2,000 miles away from the combat zone. Dozens of oil and gas sites, ports and ships around the Gulf have been hit in the conflict so far, from Kuwait to Oman.

Multiple analysts assess that the likely near-term outcomes include U.S./Israeli strikes on the Iranian power grid; Iranian retaliatory strikes on high-value infrastructure in neighboring states; continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, pending further developments; and continued pressure on the global supply of oil, gas and refined products, particularly affecting the Asian markets that depend on Mideast oil. "Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not going to happen. In the coming days, we can expect Tehran to threaten to 'set the Gulf on fire,' especially if the U.S. strikes critical infrastructure," said former Israeli Defense Intelligence Iran chief Danny Citrinowicz. "Such rhetoric [U.S. threats] will not shift Iran’s position; instead, it forces [Trump] to choose: escalate and follow through, risking broader war, or back down and further erode U.S. deterrence."

Source: maritime-executive.com