WMO forecast signals strong El Niño and increased climate extremes

June 14 ------ The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts a strong likelihood of El Niño developing, raising global concern over intensified climate extremes and widespread economic impacts.

Anew WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, issued in June, indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong.

"The science is clear. El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even further and cross borders with devastating speed," said António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, adding that the only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis: Ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable and delivering early warning systems for all.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the warming phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern that alters global weather systems. Each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts. It is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.

El Niño can intensify heatwaves, disrupt fisheries, increase wildfire risk, and strain water systems. It also has serious public health implications, including heat stress, malnutrition risks, disease spread, and smoke exposure, especially in already vulnerable regions. Because these impacts interact with global trade and food systems, regional shocks can quickly become global.

During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. Thus, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Impact on the global economy

The expected 2026–27 event is being flagged as potentially significant because it arrives in a world already stressed by climate, economic, and geopolitical pressures, the World Economic Forum warned. Economically, El Niño can affect agriculture, energy systems, and supply chains. Staple crops like rice are especially vulnerable, with price spikes possible if production is disrupted.

In addition, drought can reduce river transport, floods can damage infrastructure, and heat can lower labor productivity. These stresses can ripple through global markets, raising costs and deepening food insecurity.

El Niño’s impact on maritime operations: The Panama Canal drought

The weather phenomenon also has implications for the shipping industry. In 2023, the El Niño climate phenomenon contributed to unusually dry conditions in Panama, significantly reducing rainfall in the canal’s watershed and lowering water levels in key reservoirs like Gatún Lake that are essential for operating the Panama Canal.

As a result, the Panama Canal Authority was forced to implement water-saving measures, including restricting the number and size of ships that could pass through, reducing daily transits and available booking slots. This led to long queues of vessels waiting to cross, extended delays of several days or even weeks, and increased shipping costs as some ships were rerouted or forced to wait.

This year, to prepare for the upcoming phenomenon, the Panama Canal has announced that, starting July 1, the maximum allowed draft for vessels using the Neopanamax locks will be reduced to 49.5 feet (15.09 meters).

Source: safety4sea.com