Windward: AIS visibility in Hormuz has deteriorated sharply

May 10 ------ According to Windward, conditions around the Strait of Hormuz are entering a significantly more unstable phase as kinetic attacks, electronic interference, and coercive maritime control converge into a single operating environment.

As explained in Windward’s May 6 update, since the launch of Project Freedom, commercial shipping has faced simultaneous military, navigational, and compliance pressure. GPS jamming has intensified around Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, AIS visibility has deteriorated sharply, and satellite imagery increasingly shows large concentrations of stationary dark vessels across both sides of the Strait.

At the same time, commercial traffic is becoming more exposed to direct operational pressure. The likely deliberate targeting of HMM NAMU, the detention of MSC FRANCESCA following AIS suppression, IRGC transit warnings over VHF, and coordinated attacks on UAE-linked energy infrastructure all point to a maritime environment where visibility, routing, and vessel behavior are now directly tied to security risk.

The disruption is already affecting commercial flows. Fujairah exports have fallen sharply following the May 4 strikes, while Kharg Island continues covert loading operations under near-total concealment. Iranian-linked tankers are also adapting routing behavior, increasingly using longer and less visible approaches through Indonesia’s Sunda and Lombok Straits.

The result is a fragmented operating environment where commercial shipping must navigate physical attacks, degraded electronic visibility, mounting compliance exposure, and increasingly militarized transit conditions simultaneously.

At a glance

• Maritime visibility across Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman deteriorated sharply following the launch of Project Freedom.

• Approximately 470 vessels were impacted by GPS jamming near Fujairah within 24 hours, while widespread AIS shutdowns further reduced maritime visibility.

• SAR imagery from May 5 detected 167 commercial-size vessels near Hormuz, including 146 operating dark and largely stationary.

• The attack on HMM NAMU was likely deliberate and coincided with strikes on UAE-linked energy infrastructure.

• Fujairah exports collapsed from typical levels of 3.5–4 million barrels per day to approximately 500,000 barrels following the May 4 attack.

• Kharg Island continues operating under sustained dark conditions, including covert VLCC loading activity and the identification of sanctioned tanker MT VIRGO.

• IRGC fast craft deployments, VHF transit warnings, vessel detention, and expanding AIS suppression are increasing operational pressure on commercial shipping.

• Alternative routing through the Sunda and Lombok Straits, AIS spoofing, and “safe transit” coordination claims indicate rapid adaptation by Iran-linked maritime networks.

Outlook

The Strait of Hormuz is shifting from a high-risk transit zone into an operationally degraded maritime environment shaped by simultaneous military pressure, electronic interference, and constrained commercial movement.

Commercial operators are increasingly trapped between competing risks. Broadcasting AIS may increase targeting exposure, while suppressing AIS raises the likelihood of detention, interception, or navigational uncertainty in already congested waters. At the same time, GPS jamming continues degrading positional reliability near key export and anchorage zones.

Dark vessel concentrations remain elevated across Hormuz, Fujairah, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Kharg Island, while covert loading activity continues despite heightened enforcement pressure. Iranian-linked operators are also adapting rapidly through alternative routing, AIS manipulation, ship-to-ship transfers, and expanding use of less visible Asian transit corridors.

The combination of kinetic attacks, electronic disruption, militarized signaling, and reduced export flows indicates that commercial shipping conditions around Hormuz are becoming structurally less stable rather than temporarily disrupted.

Source: safety4sea.com