Week five of the Iran conflict: Transit through Hormuz increases

April 8 ------ Five weeks into the conflict, the maritime system is no longer defined by simple restriction—it is being actively managed, Windward analysis highlights.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz increased over the past week, continuing under a permission-based model. This system now incorporates both the IRGC-controlled northern corridor and an emerging southern route along the Omani coastline. At the same time, new visibility into Bandar Abbas offers a clearer picture of how this framework operates in practice. Energy exports have continued, food imports are being prioritized and China-linked container trade remains active. Much of this activity is conducted under AIS-dark conditions, closely tied to controlled access through Hormuz.

Hormuz throughput rises under control

As explained by Windward, the clearest shift this week was the increase in confirmed crossings through the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 29, only two AIS-transmitting vessels exited the Gulf and one entered. By March 30, confirmed crossings rose to six. By March 31, they reached 11. On April 1, transits climbed again to 16, marking a third consecutive daily increase.

This is not a return to open transit. Throughout the week, the dominant model remained the same. Vessels primarily moved through the Iranian-controlled corridor north of Larak Island, hugging Iranian territorial waters rather than using the standard commercial lanes. SAR imagery repeatedly showed vessels staged north of Larak, likely awaiting or preparing for controlled transit.

At the same time, a second transit corridor emerged along the southern side of the Strait, with vessels moving along the Omani coastline. Between April 2 and April 5, multiple vessels transited this route, beginning with three Omani-operated vessels — two VLCCs and one LNG carrier — marking the first confirmed use of the southern pathway and the first LNG transit since the war began.

Subsequent movements included additional eastbound crossings and a coordinated cluster of transits on April 4, indicating structured scheduling rather than isolated passage. Iran and Oman have also initiated discussions to formalize navigation rules, suggesting that this southern route is being integrated into a broader, permission-based transit framework rather than operating independently. A significant share of transits through Hormuz involved sanctioned vessels, falsely flagged tankers, or operators tied directly or indirectly to Iranian trade.

Outbound movements were concentrated in cargoes that benefited Iran directly or operationally. Bulk carriers carrying agricultural commodities, containerized goods, and dry bulk dominated the exits. Inbound movements were led by sanctioned, Iran-linked tankers and other cargoes aligned with the controlled system. This confirms that throughput is rising, but access remains filtered. Hormuz is operating as a permission-based corridor that benefits approved cargoes, aligned operators, and sanctioned networks already adapted to reduced-visibility movement.

Port friction remains elevated

Port activity this week reflected continued operational strain rather than recovery. Inside the Gulf, disruption indicators remained elevated at Jebel Ali, Port Khalid, Shuwaikh, and Khalifa Bin Salman. These included transshipment rollovers, delay cases, and port-of-destination changes, often far above seven-day averages.

Outside the Gulf, Karachi, Khor Fakkan, and Salalah also showed ongoing friction. Karachi recorded both rollovers and destination changes above recent averages. Khor Fakkan saw a sharp jump in destination changes. Salalah’s delay and rollover counts remained significant even where they were below recent seven-day averages, indicating that external hubs continue to absorb rerouting pressure.

These patterns point to a wider operating environment in which routing decisions remain fluid, schedules are unstable, and secondary hubs are carrying more of the system’s adjustment burden. Even where ports remain active, the network around them is becoming less predictable. "The week also expanded the threat picture. Consecutive tanker attacks near Dubai and Ras Laffan showed that maritime risk is spreading beyond chokepoints and into the wider Gulf operating environment. The system is still moving. But it is moving through a narrower set of routes, darker logistics patterns, and more exposed infrastructure," Windward highlights.

Source: safety4sea.com