VLCC delivery surge raises oversupply concerns

October 31 ------ According to Hartland Shipping Services, the global very large crude carrier (VLCC) fleet is approaching a major delivery wave, with more than 100 new vessels expected to enter service annually in both 2028 and 2029, raising concerns about future tanker oversupply.

In its Weekly Commentary dated 23 October 2026, Hartland reports that 319 VLCCs, representing approximately 98.5 million dwt, are currently on order, equivalent to 34.2% of the existing fleet. When sanctioned vessels are excluded from the fleet calculation, the orderbook-to-fleet ratio rises to 42%, the highest among the tanker and bulk carrier segments assessed by Hartland.

Despite the substantial orderbook, the immediate supply outlook remains constrained. Only 20 of the 319 VLCCs on order, approximately 6%, are scheduled for delivery during the six months covering the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Hartland identifies this limited influx of new tonnage as a key factor behind the current shortage of available vessels and exceptionally strong tanker freight rates.

The delivery schedule shows a significant concentration of new capacity toward the end of the decade. According to Hartland’s October orderbook figures, eight VLCCs are scheduled for delivery during the remainder of 2026, followed by 63 in 2027 and 248 from 2028 onward. Of the total orderbook, 138 vessels are not expected to enter service until 2029 or later, reflecting extended shipyard lead times and the sharp increase in ordering activity since late 2025.

The projected acceleration represents a substantial shift from recent years, when just one VLCC was delivered in 2024 and six in 2025. While these figures suggest mounting supply-side pressure later in the decade, the extent of any market imbalance will depend on how much of the new capacity replaces existing ships rather than adding to the trading fleet.

Source: safety4sea.com