Veson Nautical Q4 2026 Shipping Outlook: Tanker rates surge

October 8 ------ Shipping markets are heading into the final quarter of 2026 under mounting geopolitical pressure, with disruptions around some of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints continuing to reshape trade routes, vessel demand and freight flows, according to the Veson Nautical Shipping Market Outlook Q4 2026.

The latest escalation follows the lapse of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in mid-August without renewal. By early September, a series of strikes and counterstrikes around the Strait of Hormuz had intensified, raising fresh concerns over the security and reliability of a vital corridor for global energy shipments.

The disruption is also being felt in the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks are hindering Saudi oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Veson Nautical’s current outlook assumes that Middle East oil flows will improve to some extent during Q4 2026, but a full recovery is not expected before at least mid-2027.

Meanwhile, the continued absence of a broad return to Suez Canal transits is keeping voyage distances elevated, particularly for vehicle carriers and container ships. That pattern is expected to persist, with a meaningful reversal not anticipated until 2028.

Tankers

• Tanker earnings surged: VLCCs earned more than $200,000 a day in Q3, while MR product tankers averaged around $40,000 a day. Longer routes, ship-to-ship transfers off Oman and diversions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait helped push rates to record highs.

• Middle East oil flows remain under pressure: Both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb face security threats, while the East-West pipeline serving Yanbu has also been damaged. Oil flows are expected to improve in Q4, but a full recovery may not come until mid-2027.

• Oil demand could support tankers: Global oil demand is expected to return to growth in 2027, while countries are likely to rebuild their oil stockpiles. This could keep demand for tankers strong.

• Ship orders are soaring: 198 VLCCs have been ordered so far in 2026, compared with 89 during all of 2025. New crude tanker orders now make up around 80% of all tanker orders.

• Tanker prices have jumped: The value of a five-year-old VLCC has risen 70% this year to $196.3 million, while the price of a new VLCC has climbed 8.4% to $138 million.

• A slowdown could be coming: From 2027, new tanker deliveries are expected to grow faster than demand, which could put pressure on the market in the years ahead.

Bulkers

• Bulk carrier earnings rose strongly: Capesize ships averaged around $41,000 a day in Q3, up 66% from a year earlier. Supramax rates also increased to almost $20,000 a day, compared with around $15,000 in Q3 2025.

• China remains a key driver: Strong Chinese demand for iron ore and bauxite has supported the market. Chinese exports grew 19.3% in the first eight months of 2026, while iron ore imports remained high despite a 3.1% decline in steel production.

• More ships than cargo could pressure rates: Dry bulk demand is expected to grow by around 2.6% a year through 2029, but the fleet is expected to grow faster, at around 3.8% a year. This could put downward pressure on freight rates as more new ships enter the market in 2027 and 2028.

• Guinea could boost shipping demand: The expansion of the Simandou mining project in Guinea is expected to increase shipments of bauxite and iron ore over longer distances. This could support demand for ships even if Chinese steel production continues to weaken.

• Secondhand ship prices continued to rise: Five-year-old Capesizes gained 6.5% in Q3, while Panamaxes rose 3.5%, Supramaxes 5.2% and Handy Bulkers 2.9%.

• Older ships could leave the market: The dry bulk fleet is expected to grow by around 4.2% a year through 2029. More older vessels could be scrapped toward the end of the period, with 42% of the fleet expected to be 10–15 years old, helping to limit fleet growth.

Containers

• Container earnings edged higher: Rates rose by around 4.1% in Q3 across different ship sizes. Major shipping lines are also considering a partial return to the Red Sea route, although security concerns could still delay a full return.

• Global shipping volumes remain strong: Asia–North America volumes increased 3.2% so far this year, while global container volumes grew 4.9%. Asia–Europe trade led the growth, rising 9.1%, followed by trade within Asia, up 6.5%.

• Demand is expected to keep growing: Container demand is forecast to rise 4.9% in 2026 and by an average of 4.1% a year from 2027 to 2029, helped by continued growth in Chinese exports. However, ongoing energy disruptions could weigh on volumes later this year.

• More ships are on the way: Shipping companies have ordered more than 3 million TEU of new capacity this year, pushing the total orderbook above 14 million TEU. The fleet is expected to grow much faster than demand over the next few years.

• Freight rates could come under pressure: With more ships entering the market than the amount of cargo available, freight rates are forecast to fall by around 32% on average over the forecast period.

• Older ships may be scrapped: Ship recycling is expected to increase moderately, particularly among smaller vessels below 3,000 TEU, where the fleet is generally older.

LPG and vehicle carriers

LPG, petrochemical gas and ammonia volumes declined further in Q3, but earnings remained strong as disrupted trade routes and Panama Canal congestion supported rates. US propane exports rose 9% year-to-date, while Saudi Aramco plans to suspend propane exports in H1 2027, putting further pressure on global supplies.

US LPG exports are expected to grow 13% in 2026, while Middle East exports are forecast to fall 48%. At the same time, a large number of new gas carriers are on order, with the fleet expected to grow by around 9.2% annually, potentially putting pressure on the market from 2027.

Meanwhile, vehicle carrier rates surged in Q3 as limited ship availability and longer routes kept the market tight. Standard PCTC charter rates rose 36.9% to $73,300 a day, while midsize vessels reached around $48,450 a day.

Chinese vehicle exports jumped 68% to 7.1 million units in the first eight months of 2026, including a 114% increase in EV exports. Ship orders have also surged, with 57 new vessels ordered so far this year, but fleet growth remains too slow to meet demand. More than 2 million vehicles from China could therefore be forced onto alternative transport modes in 2026 due to a shortage of available ships.

Source: safety4sea.com