US Sees Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Unlikely Next Year Despite 2027 Timeline, Sources Say

WASHINGTON, October 4 ------ US officials believe ⁠a Chinese ⁠invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's ⁠instructions for his military to be ready by 2027 to take the democratically governed island by force, if needed, people familiar with US thinking said.

The main reasons include delays in military readiness ​amid the Chinese Communist Party's anti-corruption campaign as well as Beijing's eagerness to see the results of Taiwan's 2028 election, which some Chinese officials hope could usher in a government more amenable to bringing the island under Chinese control, according to two current US officials, one former US official and a ‌person familiar with the matter.

Beijing may increasingly look to use force in 2028 ‌and beyond if Taiwan's election sees the Democratic Progressive Party win a fourth consecutive term, and in particular if current President Lai Ching-te wins reelection, the people added. "If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty," said one of the US officials, who, like the other sources, spoke on condition ⁠of anonymity.

Lai, who took office ⁠two years ago, and his ruling DPP champion Taiwan's separate identity from China, a position that frequently angers Beijing, which views the island as an ​inviolable part of Chinese territory. Taiwan strongly objects to China's claims and says only its people can decide their future.

The assessment, which has not previously been reported, is a significant update to the years-long understanding among US officials that Xi wanted his military ready to potentially take Taiwan by force in 2027, the centenary of the founding of its People's Liberation Army. China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control but has never publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order.

Taiwan's presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo said in a statement that under Lai's leadership, Taiwan will not only strengthen its self-defense capabilities but will also continue to ​work closely with all international democratic allies, including the US, to maintain the status quo, deter threats through strength, and ensure peace. "For the sake of its citizens' freedom, democracy, prosperity, and well-being, Taiwan will not abandon its commitment to democracy ⁠and ⁠freedom in the face of any military threat," she added.

In a speech this week, Xi referred to Taiwan and talked about promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations to achieve "reunification."

The 2027 benchmark, which analysts say is ​about Chinese military preparedness rather than a timeline for invasion, has for years created ⁠a sense of urgency across multiple US administrations in countering China in the Asia-Pacific region.

The US intelligence community has hinted at Chinese wariness before. It said in its annual threat assessment in March that China did not, at least at that point, have a plan to invade Taiwan next year and still preferred to wrest control of the island without the use of force, if possible.

Source: usnews.com