The era of oil in maritime is ending, UK government’s forecasts show

August 31 ------ The UK’s Department for Transport has published new long-term forecasts showing a major shift in the way goods move through British ports, with oil and fossil fuel traffic expected to collapse while ferries, roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) and container shipping surge.

Compared to 2023, total UK port traffic is forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2035 and by 7.8% in 2050, that is from 420.6 million tons in 2023 to 425.8M in 2035 and to 453.5M in 2050, the UK Port Freight Traffic Forecasts (2024–2050) predict. The long-term growth, by 2050, is driven by significant increases in unitized and dry bulk freight (56.7% and 61.7%, respectively). The former is forecast to increase from 151.9M tons in 2023 to 237.9M tons in 2050 and the latter from 84.4M tons in 2023 to 136.5M tons in 2050. General cargo freight is also forecast to increase but at the lower rate of 12.1%, that is from 15.0M tons in 2023 to 16.9M tons in 2050.

On the other hand, liquid bulk traffic is forecast to realize a significant decrease, by 63.3%, from 169.3M tons in 2023 to 62.1M tons in 2050. This is mainly due to the acceleration of the net-zero transition, which will mostly affect crude oil and oil products. This decrease, especially for other liquid bulk cargoes, can also be attributed to the shift from liquid bulk to tank containers for some shipments. Liquefied gases are also forecast to decrease, although to a lesser degree, which can be due to the use of natural gas as a transition fuel towards net zero.

The UK has seen a significant reduction in crude oil refining, with just six operational refineries today from 18 in the 1970s. The reliance on oil is dwindling and will only accelerate as the motor and energy sectors increasingly move towards sustainable options and demand for fossil-based products falls, as per the report.

The forecasts aim to inform long-term strategic thinking for the UK ports sector, including in the context of the National Policy Statement for Ports (NPSP). The NPSP highlights the importance of the ports sector to the UK economy. For ports and shipping operators, the message of the forecasts is clear: the growth is coming from sectors that can and must electrify.

Source: offshore-energy.biz