TD ‘Carina’ heads towards Cagayan, signal No. 1 raised

July 13 ------ Tropical cyclone wind signal No. 1 has been raised over Batanes, Babuyan, and parts of Cagayan province, as the low pressure area (LPA) east of Luzon has developed into tropical depression “Carina” early Monday. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) placed under Signal No. 1 Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan including Sta. Ana, Gonzaga, Sta. Teresita, Buguey, eastern Lal-lo, eastern Gattaran, and eastern Baggao.

“Carina” may also bring moderate to heavy rains over Babuyan Islands and the eastern section of mainland Cagayan and Isabela, and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, as early as Monday, July 13.

Flooding and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to take appropriate measures and monitor the rainfall or thunderstorm advisories or heavy rainfall warnings of PAGASA Regional Services Divisions,” PAGASA said.

FORECAST TRACK

At 7 a.m., the center of tropical depression “Carina” was estimated at 275 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 55 kph. PAGASA said the center of the cyclone may turn northwestward before traversing the Luzon Strait, passing near the northeastern portion of Cagayan and Babuyan Islands between Monday night, July 13, and Tuesday morning, July 14. “Carina” is currently moving west at 20 kph.

However, accounting for the forecast track probability cone, PAGASA noted that a landfall scenario over these areas remain likely. It advised fisherfolk and others using small sea craft not to venture out into the northern and eastern coasts of Luzon in the next 24 hours as the tropical cyclone may trigger rough to very rough sea conditions. “Carina” may also bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Metro Manila, Western Visayas, and the rest of Luzon within 24 hours

Meanwhile, Mindanao and the rest of Visayas will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers mostly in the afternoon or evening due to localized thunderstorms. The tropical depression will likely weaken and become once again an LPA on Wednesday, PAGASA said. “Carina” is the first tropical cyclone to form inside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) this month, and the third in 2020. Based on PAGASA’s historical data from 1948 to 2016, an average of two to four tropical cyclones form or enter the PAR in July.

Source: mb.com.ph