Tankers trickle through the Strait of Hormuz, as conflict nears third week

March 21 ------ Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened concerns about what could become the most severe disruption to global oil supplies ever.

Although Tehran maintains strict control over the vital shipping lane, a limited number of vessels have managed to pass through under specific conditions. Maritime analysts say this suggests Iran is selectively allowing certain non-Iranian oil shipments to proceed via negotiated, safe passages. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that only 21 tankers have transited the strait since the conflict began on 28 February, a sharp decline from the more than 100 vessels that typically passed through each day before the crisis.

Despite the restrictions, some oil tankers continue to move through the strait. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC that Iran’s efforts to restrict traffic have not significantly impacted the U.S. economy. He reiterated the Trump administration’s view that the conflict is likely to conclude within weeks rather than months.

Hassett noted that tanker traffic has begun to resume gradually, describing it as a sign of Iran’s waning capacity to sustain the blockade. He added that while the administration remains optimistic about a near-term resolution, oil prices could fluctuate temporarily as delayed shipments eventually reach refineries. Hassett further warned of potential supply concerns if Asian countries reduce exports of refined oil to the United States amid decreased Middle Eastern output.

Meanwhile, Iran has largely refrained from targeting vessels linked to China. According to Windward, many ships operating in the Gulf have broadcast automatic identification system (AIS) data indicating Chinese ownership or crew presence.

Some non-Chinese vessels have also been allowed through. Two Indian liquefied petroleum gas carriers were permitted to transit, with one arriving on 15 March and another which was expected on 17 March. Turkish authorities confirmed that one Turkish-owned vessel was allowed passage after docking at an Iranian port, although 14 other Turkish vessels remain in the area awaiting clearance.

Among the ships that have successfully navigated the strait is the Shenlong, a Liberia-flagged Suezmax tanker managed by Dynacom, which passed through Hormuz around March 8 carrying approximately one million barrels of Saudi crude bound for Mumbai. Another tanker, the Smyrni, also transporting Saudi crude, reportedly transited the waterway last week and is now anchored near Mumbai.

Nevertheless, according to Windward, in the near term maritime activity is likely to remain defined by restricted transit through Hormuz, controlled movement under selective access conditions and continued redistribution of trade flows across global maritime corridors.

Source: safety4sea.com