Severe Tropical Storm Paolo slightly intensifies as it nears Aurora-Isabela area

MANILA, Philippines, October 3 ------ Severe Tropical Storm Paolo (Matmo) slightly intensified before dawn on Friday, October 3, as it moved closer to the northern Aurora-southern Isabela area.

In a briefing past 5 am on Friday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Paolo now has maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour from the previous 125 km/h. Its gustiness is now up to 125 km/h from 115 km/h. “Further intensification into a typhoon prior to landfall is not ruled out,” added PAGASA.

The severe tropical storm was last spotted 150 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, as of 4 am. It is moving west-northwest at 20 km/h, and at this pace, could make landfall in Aurora or Isabela during the morning or around noon.

PAGASA’s updated rainfall outlook, also released at 5 am on Friday, shows moderate to torrential rain from Paolo is expected in the following provinces during the day:

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Isabela, Quirino, Aurora

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Tarlac, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay

The weather bureau also said the trough or extension of the severe tropical storm may trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas on Friday. Affected areas must watch out for floods and landslides.

Meanwhile, below are the areas where tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect as of 5 am.

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)

• central and southern parts of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, Angadanan, Cauayan City, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Aurora, San Manuel, Burgos, Gamu, Roxas, Palanan)

• northern part of Quirino (Maddela, Cabarroguis, Aglipay, Saguday, Diffun)

• northern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Bagabag, Villaverde, Ambaguio, Quezon, Solano, Bayombong)

• Mountain Province

• Ifugao

• southeastern part of Abra (Tubo)

• northern part of Benguet (Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Bakun, Kibungan, Atok, Kapangan)

• central and southern parts of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Alilem, Cervantes, Suyo, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia, Candon City, San Emilio, Galimuyod, Lidlidda, Banayoyo, Santiago, San Esteban, Burgos)

• northern part of La Union (Sudipen, Santol, Balaoan, Luna, Bangar, San Gabriel, Bacnotan, San Juan)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• central and southern parts of mainland Cagayan (Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Iguig, Tuao, Piat, Rizal, Santo Niño, Alcala, Amulung)

• rest of Isabela

• rest of Quirino

• rest of Nueva Vizcaya

• central part of Aurora (Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis)

• northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Bongabon, San Jose City, Pantabangan, Rizal, Lupao)

• central and southern parts of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao)

• Kalinga

• rest of Abra

• rest of Benguet

• central and southern parts of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Batac City, Paoay, Currimao, Banna, Laoag City, San Nicolas, Sarrat, Dingras, Solsona, Marcos, Bacarra, Piddig)

• rest of Ilocos Sur

• rest of La Union

• northern part of Pangasinan (San Fabian, Sison, Pozorrubio, Umingan, San Jacinto, Laoac, Binalonan, San Nicolas, Natividad, Tayug, San Manuel, Asingan, Santa Maria, San Quintin, Dagupan City, Mangaldan, Manaoag, Bolinao, Anda, Bani, Alaminos City, Sual, Labrador, Lingayen, Binmaley, Calasiao, Mapandan, Santa Barbara, Urdaneta City)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of mainland Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands

• rest of Aurora

• northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta), including Polillo Islands

• Camarines Norte

• northern part of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Goa, San Jose, Presentacion)

• Catanduanes

• rest of Apayao

• rest of Ilocos Norte

• rest of Pangasinan

• rest of Nueva Ecija

• northern part of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, Norzagaray, San Rafael)

• Tarlac

• northeastern part of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba, Mabalacat City)

• northern part of Zambales (Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz)

Signal No. 4 would be the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal if Paolo becomes a typhoon before landfall.

PAGASA added that Paolo’s periphery will bring strong to gale-force gusts to areas not under a wind signal in these regions or provinces:

Friday, October 3

Batanes, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, Panay Island, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar

Saturday, October 4

Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan

In addition, there is a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges with peak heights reaching 1 to 3 meters in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon within 24 hours.

Sea conditions are worsening on Friday as Paolo nears landmass. Up to very rough, high, or very high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Isabela and northern Aurora – waves up to 11 meters high

• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; seaboards of Ilocos Sur and La Union – waves up to 6 meters high

• Remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Ilocos Norte; seaboards of Babuyan Islands – waves up to 5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboards of Batanes; remaining seaboards of Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands – waves up to 4 meters high

• Seaboards of northern Quezon and Camarines Norte; seaboards of Pangasinan – waves up to 3.5 meters high

• Northern seaboards of Catanduanes and Camarines Sur – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Catanduanes, Rapu-Rapu Islands, and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; western seaboards of Zambales and Bataan; remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high

After Paolo’s expected passage through the landmass of Northern Luzon, it is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Friday afternoon or evening, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday morning, October 4. Paolo is the country’s 16th tropical cyclone for 2025, and the first for October. During the month, two to four tropical cyclones are estimated to form within or enter PAR.

Source: rappler.com