Sea-Intelligence: Slowing trade growth puts container shipping under pressure

October 23 ------ Container shipping faces increasing pressure as global trade growth slows and new vessel capacity continues entering the market, according to Sea-Intelligence.

In its latest Sunday Spotlight, Sea-Intelligence examines the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) from a container shipping perspective, identifying a growing imbalance between trade demand and containership capacity.

According to the IMF projections cited by Sea-Intelligence, global trade volume growth is expected to moderate from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2027. Meanwhile, import demand in advanced economies is forecast to slow from 5.0% growth in 2026 to 4.2% in 2027. Sea-Intelligence warns that this pace of demand growth will be insufficient to absorb all the newly built containership capacity entering service, adding pressure to an already challenging supply-demand balance.

US–China trade shifts reshape shipping networks

Beyond slowing trade growth, Sea-Intelligence identifies significant changes in global cargo flows following the introduction of new US–China tariffs in 2025.

According to its analysis, Chinese exports shipped directly to the United States declined by 22% over a 12-month period, while US exports to China fell by 25%. However, the contraction in direct bilateral trade has not resulted in a comparable collapse in overall trade volumes, as production and cargo flows have increasingly shifted toward other markets.

Sea-Intelligence reports that Chinese producers redirected 52% of their products to other Asian countries, while US exporters redirected 17%, reflecting changes in established trading relationships. Manufacturers are increasingly moving components from China to countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia for assembly before exporting finished goods to the United States.

These changes are creating more complicated logistics chains, with additional port calls, cargo-handling stages and transportation costs. For container carriers, the redistribution of trade flows also highlights the need to adapt shipping networks to changing manufacturing and sourcing patterns.

AI trade growth does not translate directly into container demand

Sea-Intelligence also examines the impact of increasing investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure on global trade. The analysis finds that trade in AI-related hardware has reached record levels relative to global GDP, although the physical weight of these goods has increased only marginally.

This indicates that growth in the value of AI-related trade is not necessarily accompanied by a proportional increase in physical cargo volumes.

According to Sea-Intelligence, high-value components such as microprocessors are generally transported by air, limiting their direct contribution to ocean freight demand. However, the construction of AI data centers requires substantial quantities of heavier equipment and materials, which are transported in ocean containers and provide additional cargo opportunities for shipping lines.

Source: safety4sea.com