Political Shifts in Yemen Will Impact Maritime Security in the Red Sea

December 10 ------ Largely unremarked upon in the Western press, southern and eastern areas of Yemen which are not occupied by the Houthis are undergoing a political realignment which is likely to impact the threats posed to shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden areas. Simply put, the threat to shipping will persist while those posing the threat have a secure base from which to operate.

While the Houthis are preoccupied by internal divisions and concerned that their senior leadership will be subject to further pinpoint attacks, a contest has reignited in the parts of Yemen controlled by the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG). The IRG has always been split between the remnants of the legitimate government of Yemen, and the breakaway Southern Transition Council (STC), which seeks to revive an independent South Yemen as it existed before the country was unified in 1990. The rump of the IRG, less the STC, is itself split between various factions, one of which is aligned with the Islah, a Muslim Brotherhood-inclined political party regarded by the UAE as toxic.

The STC is heavily supported by the UAE, which likes the secular-inclined character of the STC leadership, while perhaps wishing to forget that South Yemen was a Marxist-Leninist state closely allied with the Soviet Union (and which sponsored an unsuccessful communist insurgency in southern Oman). In recent days, forces of the STC's Southern Giants Brigades have pushed out troops loyal to the core IRG from Aden, from the Lahj area north of Aden, and from the coastal (and the most populated) areas of the Hadramawt and Mahra in the East of the country, and planting the STC flag on the border with Oman. By doing so, they have challenged for control of Yemen's oil production in the Marib-Al Jawf, Shabwa and Sayun-Masila fields, and have already seized the export terminals servicing these areas.

Forces of the IRG, backed by Saudi Arabia, have responded by consolidating their presence in areas contiguous with the Yemeni-Saudi border - in the northern areas Marib, of the Hadramawt and Mahra. This leaves three members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in conflict with each other. Saudi Arabia needs to protect its border, does not want to be left alone to face the threat from the Houthis, and has always sought access to the Gulf of Aden. The UAE wants to pursue its ambitions to create a client state in South Yemen, furthering its semi-imperial and commercial ambitions in the Red Sea and Africa. Oman needs to secure its Dhofar frontier and wants to keep Al Mahra adjacent to its border autonomous and non-aligned, much as it has been in recent years. These conflicting ambitions are not yet resolved, despite the bold STC action.

A political settlement within the IRG's Yemen would do much to curb the ambitions of the Houthis, who have achieved dominance in their expanded territory primarily because opposition to them is so fragmented. A revived and prosperous southern Yemen would do much to undermine the stranglehold of the Houthis have over the population it controls, now suffering intense deprivation.

The US and British governments, on the basis of diplomatic activity in recent days, are still supporting the IRG, hoping that it will bring all the factions in the non-Houthi areas, including the STC, into a successful coalition. But it has not been a successful coalition up to now, and shown little signs of becoming one. Nevertheless, such a prospect, even if dim, probably still remains the best hope for achieving stability in Yemen, which is a prerequisite for improved maritime security in adjoining sea areas. But it is clear that other options are now on the table.

Source: maritime-executive.com