Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number down to 1.01 — OCTA Research

April 21 ------ OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Wednesday, April 21, said the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) is now down to 1.01 from 1.90 before the implementation of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in late March. “The reproduction number as of yesterday [April 20] is 1.01. So it is [now] essentially 1. Nagkaroon tayo ng (We had a) one-week negative growth rate, actually two weeks negative growth rate in NCR, based on our weekly tracking,” David said in a ONE News PH interview.

“Maliit lang naman. It’s decreased by 7 percent but this will [show] that the momentum has possibly changed. Pababa na ‘yung momentum and hopefully kaya natin ma-sustain ‘yan para matuloy-tuloy ‘yan. And then we can take off maybe, possibly loosening some restrictions,” he added. David reiterated that when loosening restrictions, the government must keep in mind the primary transmission mode of the virus. “That’s the way to do it, that’s how we balance economy and public health,” he said.

The OCTA expert said the full effect of the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) will be known by the end of April “It’s just a little over one week of MECQ and I think we have to give it a little more time. Maybe by end of April will be sufficient, which is next week, we will know the full effect of MECQ. If the momentum or direction does not change I think we can confidently say na na-sustain natin ‘yung gains during this MECQ and we can look at our options,” David explained. However, he pointed that out that although trends have improved, hospital capacity for COVID-19 cases will remain full at the moment.

“Marami pa ring cases even though nag-decrease na ‘yung average number sa NCR. Two weeks ago it was 5,000 plus [cases], now we’re averaging 4,300,” David said. “That’s still a significant number of cases every day and if we factor in ‘yung magiging severe and critical based on our projections medyo mataas pa rin ‘yung number of hospital admissions na makikita natin for the next few weeks,” he added.

Source: mb.com.ph