ICC warns Black Sea and Hormuz disruptions could deepen global food security risks

September 27 ------ The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has warned that disruptions to critical maritime trade routes in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz could place additional pressure on global food security, calling for early international action to restore the flow of agricultural commodities.

Speaking at a high-level side event of the United Nations General Assembly on 23 September, ICC Secretary General John W.H. Denton AO said the consequences of disrupted trade routes extend well beyond conflict zones, affecting agricultural producers, consumers and humanitarian agencies worldwide.

The event brought together nearly 50 representatives of governments and international organizations, including the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, foreign ministers and senior officials from more than 25 countries, as well as UN humanitarian leaders.

Denton highlighted what he described as a convergence of food security risks, pointing to the blockade of key Black Sea ports, continuing disruption affecting the Strait of Hormuz and the potential return of El Niño conditions. According to the ICC, the combined effects may not be immediately visible but could emerge in the coming months through reduced harvests, tighter supplies and higher food prices.

Black Sea shipping disruption

The ICC is particularly calling for the resumption of grain movements from Ukraine, warning that delays could have consequences for both the country’s agricultural sector and global food availability.

Denton said the ICC’s network in Ukraine was reporting an urgent need to move grain before storage capacity is reached in the coming six weeks. He warned that delays could affect global food availability and affordability, while stressing that any mechanism to reopen the Black Sea would need to be commercially workable and operationally practical.

The warning comes as maritime risks in the Black Sea have increased. The London marine insurance market recently expanded its high-risk area to cover the entire Black Sea following a rise in attacks affecting commercial shipping. The region remains a major route for grain, crude oil and refined petroleum products.

Russia has also been adapting alternative port infrastructure to maintain grain exports after attacks disrupted shipments through the Black Sea. Reuters reported this week that Russian companies have begun repurposing fertilizer, coal and other cargo terminals in Baltic and Arctic ports for grain exports. Almost 90% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports had previously passed through the Black Sea.

Lessons from the 2022 grain corridor

Denton pointed to the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative as evidence of what coordinated international action can achieve when maritime trade is affected by conflict.

The ICC supported the initiative as a member of the UN Global Crisis Response Group, providing input from businesses operating across agricultural supply chains, shipping networks and commodity markets.

The humanitarian maritime corridor enabled nearly 33 million tons of grain and food products to reach global markets, according to the ICC. The organization said the initiative helped stabilize markets, reduce food prices and support humanitarian operations.

Denton also highlighted the initiative’s role in restoring confidence in maritime trade, arguing that the experience demonstrated how trade can contribute to humanitarian objectives when supported by international cooperation. ICC previously noted that its involvement in the 2022 initiative included providing practical proposals on restoring grain and fertilizer exports from Ukraine and Russia.

Hormuz disruption adds pressure

The ICC’s warning also links the Black Sea situation to the continuing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, another major maritime chokepoint for global commodity flows.

The organization has previously warned that the Hormuz crisis could have significant consequences for fertilizer availability and food prices because the waterway is an important conduit for both agricultural inputs and energy. According to ICC-commissioned modelling published in August, a severe and sustained disruption could push global cereal prices as much as 81% above the 2020 baseline, while consumer food prices in East Asia, the Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa could rise by close to 70% above the same baseline in the most severe scenario.

The ICC has also highlighted the importance of the Strait for fertilizer trade, noting that Persian Gulf producers dependent on the route accounted for approximately 40% of global urea trade before its closure, alongside significant shares of global oil and LNG trade.

In July, the ICC said it was supporting a confidence-building mechanism developed by the UN Secretary-General’s Strait of Hormuz Task Force aimed at facilitating safe, orderly and predictable commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint.

Call for preventive action

Against this backdrop, the ICC is urging governments and international partners to act before the effects of disrupted trade become more pronounced.

Denton said the objective should be to establish a mechanism for reopening the Black Sea that can handle the scale of exports required in the coming months while remaining commercially viable for shipping and other supply-chain participants. "The lesson from the Black Sea experience is clear. Preventing a food crisis is far easier than responding to one," Denton stressed.

The ICC’s appeal comes as disruptions across several major maritime trade routes are increasingly interconnected with agricultural supply, fertilizer availability, energy markets and food prices. For shipping, the developments also underline the wider humanitarian and economic implications of maintaining safe and predictable access to critical sea lanes.

Source: safety4sea.com