Hormuz closure could potentially trap 204,000 TEU

March 16 ------ Sea-Intelligence conducted a network stress test simulating the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The objective was to quantify the deep-sea vessel capacity scheduled to leave the Persian Gulf, while excluding local feeder vessels that were not intended to exit the region.

As explained by Sea-Intelligence, to calculate this potentially trapped capacity, carriers’ published schedules were analyzed and applied to two scenarios. Under the Baseline Scenario, which assumes all deployed vessels operate strictly according to their published schedules with zero delays, a minimum of 156,074 TEU of deep‑sea capacity is potentially restricted.

When historical vessel delay, buffers are applied to reflect realistic operational conditions, the restricted capacity under the Adjusted Scenario rises significantly to 204,159 TEU. The difference between these two scenarios indicates that an additional 48,085 TEU may be trapped solely due to vessels running behind schedule.

Multiple analysts have highlighted that the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, which has trapped tankers and bulk carriers, is driving unprecedented freight rates while creating critical bottlenecks in insurance and energy markets.

This highlights how existing network inefficiencies can directly amplify the impact of geopolitical disruptions. Furthermore, a sustained closure also triggers immediate secondary spillover effects across the broader deep‑sea network. Vessels enroute to the Persian Gulf would be forced to abort their rotations, causing sudden cargo displacement at alternate transshipment hubs such as Salalah, Colombo, and Singapore.

This abrupt diversion would likely increase yard density, reduce terminal productivity, and create berthing delays for mainline vessels on unrelated trade lanes. Furthermore, because the Persian Gulf is structurally a net‑import region, deep‑sea services typically load empty containers to reposition back to Asian manufacturing hubs. "Trapping over 200,000 TEU simultaneously could deprive Asian export hubs of vital equipment, potentially leading to container shortages in the Far East," said Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.

Source: safety4sea.com