EUNAVFOR ASPIDES: Threat level for merchant vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

March 31 ------ EUNAVFOR ASPIDES issued an update regarding the threat level for merchant vessels transiting the Red Sea (RS), Bab el-Mandeb Strait (BaM), Gulf of Aden (GoA), and the Arabian Sea (AS).

General situation

Since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas entered into force on 9 October 2025, Houthi forces have ceased all attacks against Israel, and no attacks on merchant vessels have been reported. The last attack against Israel occurred on 8 October 2025, and the most recent incident involving a merchant vessel was recorded on 29 September 2025.

Since the 28th of February, United States and Israel are carrying out strikes on Iranian territory. Iran’s response touches all the Arabian Gulf countries. Even Turkey and Cyprus have been targeted. The Proxies of Iran in Iraq and Lebanon jointed the fight and have conducted military actions.

On March 28, 2026, the Houthi resumed missile firing against Israel. The Houthis’ support to the Islamic Republic of Iran has once again materialized.

Current situation

The time appears to have come for the Houthis to become actively involved in the conflict. Missile launches against Israel mark the first step. The second could involve resuming attacks on merchant ships passing within range of Houthi weapons, specifically in the Red Sea and the eastern Gulf of Aden.

All vessels navigating in the aforementioned areas are advised to navigate with caution. At this stage, EUNAVFOR ASPIDES assesses that the Houthis’ military capabilities remain intact and substantial.

Threat assessment

Taking into account the recent developments, the threat level for merchant vessels transiting the Red Sea (RS), Bab el-Mandeb Strait (BaM), Gulf of Aden (GoA), and the Arabian Sea (AS) is now assessed as follows:

Category — Assessment — Description

Medium — For merchant vessels not linked to Israel or the United States.

High — For vessels or shipping companies affiliated with Israeli interests (fully or partially owned, flagged, or calling at Israeli ports).

This threat assessment is current as of the date of writing. This assessment will be updated as far as necessary.

Recommendations

EUNAVFOR ASPIDES recommends that merchant ships linked to Israel or the USA avoid passing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden until the threat becomes less pressing. Other ships should continue to send their requests for support to the MSCIO.

Given the significant increase in the threat level, protective measures for ships supported by Aspides have been reinforced. The direct consequence of this measure is greater involvement of military resources. As military resources have not yet been increased, this will result in longer waiting times for ships requesting close protection.

EUNAVFOR ASPIDES’ recommendations to the maritime community remain unchanged and should continue to be observed rigorously:

• Avoid entry into Yemeni territorial waters at all times.

• When feasible, navigate closer to the African coastline to reduce exposure to potential threats.

• Maintain constant communication with MSCIO and UKMTO and adhere strictly to official guidance, risk-assessment protocols, and best management practices.

• Conduct a voyage-specific risk assessment, taking into consideration any direct or indirect affiliations between the vessel, its ownership, or its cargo and countries of interest.

• EUNAVFOR ASPIDES continues to act as a maritime security provider in support of Freedom of Navigation, offering Close Protection and Monitoring Services across the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden.

The operation continuously monitors the evolving threat environment and remains fully committed to its defensive mandate, providing free support to vessels transiting the area.

Communication and coordination

All vessel masters are reminded that the MSCIO remains available as a point of contact for any incident, suspicious activity, or unusual observation. Such reporting is vital to ensuring the safety of seafarers, the security of commercial shipping, and the preservation of freedom of navigation under the protection of Operation ASPIDES.

Source: safety4sea.com