March 21 ------ The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported on that the El Niño may continue to weaken until the March-April-May season.
The "strong" El Niño has become "weak,” based on the latest monitoring of the PAGASA. It noted that there is a 79 percent chance of a transition to an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) “neutral condition” in the April-May-June period, when neither El Niño nor La Niña will be present. Meanwhile, PAGASA said a 62 percent chance of La Niña was observed during the June-July-August period.
In a climate forum, PAGASA-Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) Senior Weather Specialist Ruby Abastillas explained that historically, a pre-developing La Niña is characterized by below-normal rainfall conditions, which causes the onset of the rainy season to be slightly delayed. “Kahit na may La Niña Watch tayo, hindi ibig sabihin na tag-ulan na after matapos nitong El Niño, still there is what we call na reversal na kung saan we still expect a less or below normal rainfall during the habagat season (Although we have La Niña Watch, it does not mean that it is already rainy season after the El Niño phenomenon, still there is what we call reversal when we expect a less or below-normal rainfall during habagat season),” she said.
PAGASA said in April to May, “way below to below-normal” rainfall conditions will be experienced in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, while it will be mostly “near-normal” in Mindanao. PAGASA said it has “high” probability for a below-normal rainfall condition in most parts of the country in April to May.
In June, PAGASA said below-normal rainfall conditions will be felt in most parts of western Luzon and some parts of Visayas, while the rest of the country will have near-normal rainfall conditions. PAGASA said there is a high probability of below-normal in Luzon and most parts of Visayas, while a high probability of near-normal in Mindanao.
PAGASA projected the maximum temperature in April-May-June season in specific areas including Northern Luzon (30.4-40.7°C), lowlands Luzon (30.8-39.6°C), mountainous Luzon (27.3-28.7°C), Metro Manila (36-37.4°C), lowlands Visayas (32-38.8°C), lowlands Mindanao (32.6-41.3°C), and mountainous Mindanao (34.5°C). Meanwhile, the minimum temperature in April-May-June season in specific areas include Northern Luzon (15.2-25.3°C), lowlands Luzon (18.5-26.4°C), mountainous Luzon (12.4-16.3°C), Metro Manila (20.4-25.3°C), lowlands Visayas (20.5-28.7°C), lowlands Mindanao (20.5-24.7°C), and mountainous Mindanao (15-19.3°C).
Source: mb.com.ph
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