Dryad Global: Regional instability fuels resurgence of Somali piracy

November 10 ------ A new Dryad Global report highlights the growing threat of Somali piracy to commercial shipping, as renewed hijackings and expanding mothership operations raise concerns over vessel and crew security.

The “Maritime disruption in the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin 2025–26” report, authored by Dryad Global analyst Joshua Harrison, examines the factors driving the resurgence of piracy across the region. It identifies political instability in Somalia, constraints on international anti-piracy operations and reported cooperation between pirate groups and other regional armed actors as key contributors to the deteriorating security environment.

According to the findings, Somali piracy has been increasing since 2024, with activity accelerating further in 2026. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), 51 piracy and armed robbery incidents were recorded worldwide between January and September 2026, including 15 attributed to Somali piracy. Despite historically low global incident numbers, Somali pirates accounted for 94% of all crew members taken hostage during the period.

The findings highlight a concerning contrast between historically low global piracy figures and the severity of incidents involving Somali pirates, particularly those resulting in hijackings and prolonged crew captivity.

Mothership tactics extend piracy risks

One of the report’s central findings concerns the increasing use of hijacked vessels as motherships to support further attacks. By using larger captured vessels to transport personnel, equipment and smaller attack craft, pirate groups can operate significantly farther from Somalia’s coastline, potentially extending their reach several hundred nautical miles offshore. This development presents additional challenges for commercial shipping, as vessels operating at considerable distances from the coast may still be exposed to pirate attacks.

Dryad Global notes that the end of the monsoon season has created more favorable conditions for offshore piracy operations, potentially allowing pirate groups to expand their activities over the coming months. The report also identifies growing concerns about attacks targeting high-value commercial vessels, including tankers operating in the Gulf of Aden, where successful hijackings could generate substantial ransom demands.

Regional instability and naval resource constraints

Dryad Global identifies the weakening of Somali state authority as a major factor behind the resurgence of piracy. Political tensions between Somalia’s federal government and regional administrations, alongside the continuing threat posed by Al-Shabaab, have placed additional pressure on national security resources and limited the authorities’ ability to address maritime crime.

At the same time, international naval forces face competing security demands across the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and wider Indian Ocean. According to the report, the diversion of naval resources toward other regional security threats has reduced the capacity available for dedicated anti-piracy operations.

The European Union’s Operation ATALANTA and Combined Task Force 151 continue to support maritime security in the region. However, Dryad Global argues that the scale of current deployments is insufficient to provide comprehensive coverage across the extensive areas where pirate groups operate.

The report contrasts today’s naval presence with the larger international deployments that helped suppress Somali piracy following its peak in 2011. While regional cooperation initiatives and international assistance remain important, the report suggests that additional coordinated efforts will be necessary to contain the renewed threat.

Report highlights links between regional armed groups

The analysis also examines reported cooperation between Somali pirate groups, Al-Shabaab, the Houthis and weapons trafficking networks associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Dryad Global describes how overlapping financial and strategic interests may encourage cooperation involving weapons transfers, logistical support and access to communications and navigation equipment.

The report references findings from the United Nations Panel of Experts on Yemen, which documented cooperation between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab in areas including weapons smuggling, technical training and operational tactics.

According to Dryad Global, these relationships may strengthen the operational capabilities of pirate groups and contribute to a more complex threat environment for commercial shipping. However, the report acknowledges that the extent of coordination between the groups remains difficult to establish, particularly concerning individual piracy incidents and the distribution of ransom payments.

The possible convergence of piracy and other regional security threats is particularly relevant to shipping in the Gulf of Aden and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where vessels already face risks associated with wider geopolitical instability.

Implications for commercial shipping and crew safety

For shipowners, operators and charterers, the findings reinforce the importance of maintaining effective maritime security arrangements when operating in the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin. The expanded geographical reach of pirate groups means that voyage-specific risk assessments should consider current threat intelligence, suspected mothership activity and the availability of naval assistance rather than relying solely on distance from the Somali coastline.

Effective implementation of ship security procedures, increased bridge vigilance, crew familiarization and timely communication with maritime security authorities remain important measures for reducing exposure to attacks.

The report’s findings also underline the human consequences of renewed piracy. Beyond the immediate danger of armed boarding, hijackings can expose seafarers to violence, hostage-taking and extended periods of captivity. Dryad Global warns that piracy risks are likely to remain elevated over the coming months, particularly as favorable weather conditions support offshore operations and wider regional instability continues to place pressure on maritime security resources.

Source: safety4sea.com