Drewry: Danube congestion tightens Black Sea vessel availability

September 9 ------ Persistent congestion on the Danube River is reducing vessel availability in the Black Sea, particularly for smaller general cargo vessels, while also affecting some dry bulk tonnage, according to Drewry.

The prolonged delays are expected to keep regional freight rates elevated throughout the grain export season. Drewry finds that repeated Russian attacks on Ukraine’s main Black Sea ports in the Odesa region have disrupted export infrastructure, forcing more grain cargo through the lower-capacity Danube ports of Reni and Izmail. This has created significant congestion near Sulina, with around 70 vessels, including general cargo and dry bulk ships, waiting for transit.

Around 52 general cargo vessels above 2,600 dwt, totaling about 280,000 dwt, are currently waiting outside Ukrainian Danube ports. Drewry estimates that around 7 million dwt, or 23%, of the global fleet in this size segment is typically deployed in the wider Black Sea region.

Pilot shortages, priority given to fuel cargoes, air-raid alerts and weather disruptions have reduced the effective flow to around three to four vessels per day heading towards Ukraine. Drewry estimates that clearing the existing queue could take several weeks.

Ukraine’s grain exports fell by almost 70% year on year in August. While Danube grain export capacity reached about 2.5 million tons per month in 2022-23, current volumes remain well below that level, highlighting the extent of the congestion.

The disruption is also shifting cargo demand towards smaller general cargo vessels. Draft restrictions and port infrastructure limitations are causing cargoes previously carried by Handysize and Handymax bulkers to be split into smaller parcels, increasing the role of smaller general cargo tonnage.

Drewry said the resulting reduction in effective vessel supply, combined with longer waiting times and higher voyage inefficiencies, is supporting freight fundamentals. With nearly one-quarter of the global sub-10,000 dwt fleet operating in the wider Black Sea market, continued Danube congestion could support higher voyage and time-charter rates for smaller general cargo vessels throughout the grain export season.

Source: safety4sea.com