MANILA, Philippines, September 15 ------ La Niña may develop in the last quarter of the year and persist until the first quarter of 2022, state weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday. In a statement, PAGASA said that recent climate monitoring and analysis indicate that La Niña—or the weather pattern characterized by above normal rainfall conditions—may emerge in the coming months. “Based on the latest forecasts by most climate models and experts judgments, there is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021, which may persist until the first quarter of 2022,” it said.
PAGASA also said that there is a higher probability of above-normal rainfall conditions in many parts of the Philippines in the next months, which can be attributed to the expected stronger easterlies, enhanced northeast monsoon and tropical cyclone occurrences. “The eastern sections of the country could further increase the likelihood of more adverse impacts such as floods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas,” it added. PAGASA advised government agencies to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of La Niña.