February 22 ------ The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said tropical depression “Auring” continued to weaken as it nears Dinagat Islands and Homonhon Island, Eastern Samar early Monday, Feb. 22. In its 5:00 a.m. severe weather bulletin, PAGASA said Auring could continue to move generally west-northwest to northwest in the next few days.
It is still expected to make landfall over Dinagat Islands, Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island), or Leyte in the next six to 12 hours. However, PAGASA noted that Auring will likely weaken further before it makes landfall “due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the northeast monsoon.” After its landfall, it may weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a low pressure area within 24 hours or earlier, PAGASA also said.
Tropical cyclone wind signal number 1 remains hoisted over several areas due to the continuous threat of the weather disturbance. As of 5:00 a.m., Signal No. 1 was up in Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, eastern portion of Camarines Sur, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Siquijor, northern and eastern portions of Negros Oriental, northern and central portions of Negros Occidental, eastern portion of Iloilo, eastern portion of Capiz, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, northern portion of Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, northern portion of Agusan del Sur, eastern portion of Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin.
PAGASA said moderate to heavy rains will prevail Monday over Albay, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Marinduque, Romblon, and Quezon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains may also affect Aurora, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Rizal. By Tuesday, Feb. 23, light to moderate with at times heavy rains will continue over Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Metro Manila, Camarines Norte, Bulacan, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Batanes.
Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding, including flash floods, and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards. Likewise, adjacent or nearby areas may experience flooding even in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.
In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the northeast monsoon and tropical depression Auring may bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect, as well as over Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern portions of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol region.
Rough seas may also affect the seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1, including the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon, southern seaboard of Luzon, and the remaining seaboards of Visayas. PAGASA warned that sea travel is risky especially for small boats.
In the next 24 hours, the northeast monsoon or “amihan” may also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, and Aurora. Isolated light amihan rains may also prevail across the rest of Luzon.
The rest of Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms. As of 4:00 a.m., Monday, tropical depression Auring was estimated at 195 kilometers (km) east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte. It was moving west-northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (kph), with maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 55 kph. PAGASA said Auring will be 55 km west-southwest of Romblon, Romblon by Tuesday morning.